Evolutionary Trajectories of China's Internet User Population and Identification of Internet Usage Patterns from 2015 to 2025

Mingjun Zhan; Meifang Zhang; Jiancong Liang

doi:10.63313/FPM.9012

Authors

Mingjun Zhan Business School, Foshan University, Foshan 528000, China Author
Meifang Zhang Business School, Foshan University, Foshan 528000, China Author
Jiancong Liang Business School, Foshan University, Foshan 528000, China Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63313/FPM.9012

Keywords:

Digital Social Governance, Internet user demographics, Internet application patterns, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), Time series clustering

Abstract

The changes in the demographic structure and application ecosystem of the Chinese Internet have shown distinct phased characteristics with the development of digital technology. Based on the statistical reports of CNNIC from 2015 to 2025, this paper utilizes visual technology and DTW-Ward hierarchical clustering algorithm to systematically examine the evolution of the Internet user demographic structure and the time series patterns of the usage rates of major Internet applications. The study reveals that China's mobile Internet has entered a high penetration stage, with the growth of the user base slowing significantly, meanwhile, the user structure also shows new dual changes, namely, the base of both younger and older user groups is growing. The clustering results show that the evolution paths of different Internet applications are not consistent, and can be classified into four types of evolution patterns: fluctuation convergence driven by context dependence, decline and transformation driven by exogenous shocks, rapid saturation driven by network effects, and stable growth driven by ecological synergy. The development of China's Internet is shifting from scale expansion to a new stage of structural adjustment and ecological differentiation, which can provide a basis for enterprises to identify market segmentation directions and optimize business strategies, and also offer references for the government to improve digital economy policies, implement classified supervision, and conduct network governance.

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