A Study on the Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Functional Disability Among Older Adults in Zhaoqing City and the Mechanisms of Exercise Intervention
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63313/SSH.9107Keywords:
Functional disability in older adults, risk prediction model, Analytic Hierarchy Process, exercise intervention, risk stratification, healthy agingAbstract
Background: Against the backdrop of an aging population, the issue of functional disability among older adults has become increasingly prominent and is now a major concern affecting public health and social governance. However, current approaches to identifying the risk of functional disability and implementing exercise interventions still face challenges such as inadequate prediction and a lack of targeted interventions. Objective: This study focuses on older adults in Zhaoqing City and aims to develop a predictive model for the risk of functional disability among older adults, identify key influencing factors, and explore exercise intervention pathways based on risk stratification. Methods: This study employed a combined approach of questionnaire surveys and functional assessments, selecting a sample of 35 older adults aged 60 and above. An indicator system for disability risk was developed based on literature review and the Delphi method, and indicator weights were determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to establish a risk prediction model. Additionally, participants were stratified according to their risk scores, and stratified exercise interventions were implemented. The effectiveness of the interventions was analyzed using descriptive statistics and group comparisons. Results: The risk of functional disability among older adults is influenced by a combination of multidimensional factors, with muscle strength, balance, the number of chronic diseases, physical activity levels, and cognitive function being the primary determinants. Risk stratification results indicated that the medium-risk group constituted the largest proportion. Following a specific period of exercise intervention, older adults showed a trend toward improvement in muscle strength and balance, with the intervention effects being relatively more pronounced in the medium-risk group. Conclusion: A disability risk prediction model based on multidimensional indicators can effectively identify and stratify risks among older adults. Implementing tailored exercise interventions based on risk stratification may provide a feasible pathway to delay the onset of disability. This study can serve as a reference for community-based health management of older adults and related policy formulation; however, its effectiveness still requires further validation in larger-scale and long-term studies.
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