Geopolitical Risk, Multi-Channel Resilience, and the Economic Stabilization Effect of the China-Europe Railway Express: Breaking the "Efficiency-Safety-Cost" Trilemma

Abstract

Against the backdrop of escalating global geopolitical risks, sudden events such as the Red Sea crisis have exposed the systemic vulnerability of traditional maritime supply chains. As a major land-based logistics corridor connecting Asia and Europe, the China-Europe Railway Express offers a new economic pathway to enhance supply chain resilience through its multi-channel collaborative operation mechanism. From an economic perspective, this research builds on complex network theory and supply chain resilience theory to construct a "multi-channel resilience triangle" model covering four corridors: East, Central, West, and South. It systematically analyzes how the China-Europe Railway Express breaks the traditional "efficiency-safety-cost" impossible triangle of land-based transport through three dimensions: spatial redundancy, time controllability, and commodity value resilience. The analysis shows that under geopolitical shocks, the China-Europe Railway Express achieves a transit time 7–10 days faster than sea freight, a freight rate 30% lower than shipping around the Cape of Good Hope, and effectively avoids high-risk geopolitical areas via the southern Trans-Caspian corridor, with freight volume growing 24% against the trend. The research further evaluates the economic impact on corporate supply chain decisions: companies such as Tesla and Volvo have significantly reduced costs and risks after shifting to the railway express. The analytical framework proposed provides a Chinese solution for international supply chain governance in turbulent environments and offers clear implications for policy making and corporate investment strategies.